Zogby Poll

A new Zogby poll has Obama leading a 4-way presidential race (against McCain, Barr, and Nader) by 10 points:

Obama leads in the East, the West, and in the South, while the two are essentially tied in the central part of the country, including the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, the poll shows. He leads among all voters under age 65 – including by huge percentages among those voters under age 30 - but trails McCain among those older voters by a 45% to 34% margin. Interestingly, Obama holds a 13-point edge among those voters age 50 to 64.

The survey hints that Libertarian Bob Barr could do some serious damage to McCain by stealing support among the very conservative and libertarian voters. Barr wins 10% support among those self-described “very conservative” voters, and wins 22% among philosophical (not necessarily “capital L”) libertarians. As McCain continues to angle for moderate support on the campaign trail, Barr could create havoc for him among McCain’s political base.

It's early, and Zogby hasn't always had the best track record for this year's primaries, but I think this is promising.

update:

Reuters article

Democratic Divide

The Christian Science Monitor has another take on the "Democratic Divide"—it's closing up. Of course, you wouldn't know by watching cable news, which not only emphasizes exit polls for division data, but also prefers to linger on those which demonstrate division. Likewise racial conflict has been inflated in this campaign—through exit polls—when it has been clear for some time (and confirmed again in Oregon) that the real split was geographical and/or cultural. Why? Conflict sells. Sensational journalism sells.

VP Polls

SurveyUSA polled voters in Pennsylvania and New Mexico on potential VP choices. Edwards is the clear winner on the Democratic side (aside from Rendell in PA, others actually bring his number down), but I read this as a recognition issue—how many people outside of Kansas know who Kathleen Sebelius is?. SUSA also left out Clinton, Gore, Richardson, and Webb from the poll—odd considering the speculation surrounding these people, and especially odd considering Richardson was left out of the polling in his own state.

update:

SurveyUSA added California: